Key Findings

• President Trump has imposed International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on US trading partners, including China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. In addition, he has threatened and imposed Section 232 tariffs on autos, heavy trucks, steel, aluminum, lumber, furniture, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and copper, among others.  
• The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,200 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026.
• Under the tariffs imposed and scheduled as of November 17, the weighted average applied tariff rate on all imports rises to 17.6 percent, and the average effective tariff rate, reflecting behavioral responses, rises to 12.5 percent—the highest average rate since 1941.
• The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP (0.52 percent for 2025) since 1993, surpassing the tax increases enacted under President Barack Obama and President George H.W. Bush.
• Trump’s imposed tariffs will raise $2.3 trillion in revenue over the next decade on a conventional basis and reduce US GDP by 0.6 percent, all before foreign retaliation. Accounting for negative economic effects, the revenue raised by the tariffs falls to $1.8 trillion over the next decade. The Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
• The US Supreme Court will soon decide whether the president’s emergency powers under IEEPA include the power to impose tariffs.
• Historical evidence and recent studies show that tariffs are taxes that raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for US businesses and consumers, resulting in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output.