Diesel Shortage is coming!

Diesel Shortage is Coming!

What does it mean for Port of Houston and Your Shipment?

By Diana Stinson, President — Texas Global Services

I’m scared of this shortage as it has the ability to sideline fleets. If you ship freight in and out of Houston, you need to read this right now. Not next quarter. Now.

While everyone is watching tariffs and trade deals, a supply crisis is building quietly underneath the entire American freight system that runs specifically on diesel.

The 109,000 horsepower Wärtsilä RTA96C-14 is a diesel engine that runs container ships and uses quite a bit of diesel. Although they do not have a Miles per Gallon, they do have a Gallons per Mile of 50 gallons per mile. That is an extraordinary amount of DFM (diesel fuel marine) to store. 400,000 Gallons for an 8000 mile voyage.

Some Refineries Are Gone and They Aren’t Coming Back

The permanent closure of major U.S. refineries removed 550,000 barrels per day of domestic refining capacity in only 18 months. One of them was right here in Houston. I don’t see this helping at all.

• LyondellBasell refinery Houston – Permanently stopped operating in January 2025.
• Phillips 66 Los Angeles – Permanently stopped operating in December 2025.
• Valero’s Refinery Benicia – Permanently stopped operating just last month, April 2026.

The Inventory Numbers Are Alarming

As of late April 2026, US Stockpile stood at approximately 102 to 106 million barrels. The lowest level for this time of year since the period between 1996 and 2003. At current consumption rates, this represents roughly 25 days of supply coverage. Discovery Alert

Twenty-five days? That’s the buffer between normal freight operations and a crisis? I see a problem that needs immediate action. Even if immediate action is taken, will there be a shortage? I think so. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says that inventories of the three fuels will fall to their lowest levels since 2000 by end of 2026.

What This Means for Your Freight — In Plain Language

Here’s the big thing, many never think about the shortage until it hits them:

Diesel prices rise → trucking rates follow within weeks → every load moving to or from your warehouse costs more → drayage from the Port of Houston gets more expensive → ocean carriers factor fuel costs into rate adjustments → your landed cost goes up across the board and it adds up fast.

Your entire supply chain runs on diesel. The truck that picks up your cargo. The equipment at the port. The train carrying your container inland. The generator keeping the warehouse lit.

Disruption in the supply chain, refinery constraints, and geopolitical tensions are already driving up diesel prices. Decreasing profit margins, and fuel supply are creating operational challenges in routing and scheduling. Delays, higher prices and chaos are almost guaranteed.

What You Should Be Doing Right Now

I’ve been moving freight for 22 years. Here’s what experienced shippers do when they see this coming:

Lock in trucking rates where you can with contracts but fuel surcharge will still hit you. Spot rates will spike faster than contract rates when diesel tightens. If you have regular shipments, explore contract options.

Make it happen. The margin for error shrinks when fuel is tight. Carriers get selective. Capacity gets scarce. The shippers who have quality forwarders that booked early, packed and delivered the shipment, get their freight moved.

Talk to your forwarder — a real one. Not an app. Not a platform. Someone who picks up the phone, knows your cargo. When diesel gets tight, plans fall apart and you need contingency.

The Bottom Line

The diesel shortage isn’t a headline yet and I’m not sure why. That’s exactly why you need to act before it becomes one. The minimum you can do for your supply chain.

By the time this is on the news, trucking rates will have already gone up, capacity will already be tight, and the shippers who planned ahead will be the ones receiving or sending shipments.

Give me a call and tell me about your supply chain. I will tell you how to make it more resilient.

By Diana Stinson President, Texas Global Services, FMC Licensed Ocean Transportation Intermediary